Introduction: By the time the shutdown occurs, it is often already too late.
In many human resources departments, the situation is familiar.
Absenteeism indicators seem to be under control overall, teams are holding up, and managers are absorbing the tension. Then, gradually, sick leave starts to pile up: one employee is absent for several weeks, another is on repeated sick leave, a team is disorganized, and working relationships become strained.
The question then arises, almost systematically: could we have foreseen these situations earlier?
Experience in the field shows that, in most cases, the answer is yes. The signs were there, but they were diffuse, fragmented, and rarely interpreted as such. Frequent delays, short absences, collective fatigue, latent conflicts, and gradual disengagement are often perceived as everyday occurrences, when in fact they are precisely the early stages of psychosocial risks.
The aim of this article is to offer an HR and organizational interpretation of the subtle signs of discontent, designed for decision-makers (HR directors, HR managers, QVCT managers), in order to better understand what is at stake before the first work stoppages and to structure more effective prevention measures, without psychologizing the situations.
Summary:
What are the first subtle signs of workplace dissatisfaction?
They appear well before long-term absences: micro-absenteeism, repeated tardiness, decreased engagement, collective tensions, and gradual disorganization within teams.
How can you distinguish between temporary stress and a lasting psychosocial risk?
By cross-referencing several non-medical indicators: absenteeism, turnover, conflicts, managerial signals, and feedback from listening mechanisms.
Why are work stoppages never the first sign?
In common perceptions, stopping work is still seen as the starting point of the problem. However, the available data suggest a different interpretation.
In France, the average absenteeism rate reached 4.84% in 2024, with an average duration of 21.5 days. These figures show that when absenteeism occurs, the situation is already established and has a significant impact on the organization.
Furthermore, more than 90% of work stoppages are related to illness, and more than one in four employees experienced at least one sick leave in 2024. Sick leave is therefore not an exceptional event, but a frequent means of coping with difficulties that have not found other outlets.
One indicator deserves particular attention: the increase in short-term absences (less than three days), which rose by more than two points. This micro-absenteeism reflects a gradual adjustment by employees to a workload or stress that they are no longer able to cope with on a long-term basis.
Before the first long break, organizations are already seeing repeated delays, short absences, and quiet disorganization. The break is therefore not the initial signal, but often the visible outcome of a longer process.
Weak HR signals and organizational bias
However, HR departments have access to a wealth of observational data. The main obstacle is not a lack of data, but the difficulty in making sense of it.
The combination of frequent tardiness, repeated short absences, successive sick leave, or unjustified absences is widely recognized as a warning sign of distress, well before any medical diagnosis or prolonged leave.
RPS barometers highlight recurring micro-signals : micro-absenteeism of one to two days, higher turnover, decreased engagement, or even more frequent conflicts within teams. These signals appear before any formal warning.
PSR prevention guides place the following at the same level of alert increased absenteeism, declining motivation, and a deteriorating work environment. This approach legitimizes a systemic interpretation, focused on the functioning of the organization rather than on individual weaknesses.
HR data does not provide a medical diagnosis. It tells a story of gradual disengagement, micro-absences, and silent departures, which are widely documented before the first long absences occur. The common bias is to wait for a clear and indisputable signal, whereas prevention is based precisely on paying attention to these subtle signals.
Identify weak signals where HR does not always look
Recognizing weak signals involves broadening the field of observation without resorting to individual analysis.
Collective behavioral signals
From the managers' point of view, certain indicators recur regularly: increased absenteeism, frequent departures, decreased participation in projects, repeated conflicts, or even visible fatigue. Their common characteristic is that they can be observed at the team level, without individual interviews or clinical expertise.
When several employees withdraw into their tasks, participate less in group projects, or avoid areas of interaction, it is less a matter of individual situations than a tense working environment.
Organizational signals that are often trivialized
In terms of organization, the most frequently observed weak signals include repeated absences, conflicts, isolation, and work overload, abnormally high turnover, and poor internal communication. Taken individually, these factors may seem circumstantial. Taken together, they point to a structured psychosocial risk.
When several teams experience increased absenteeism, recurring tensions, and disengagement from collective projects, this is already a sign of organizational weakness, rather than a series of isolated incidents.
Indirect managerial signals
Another indicator that is often underestimated concerns the managers themselves. Overworked managers, repeated informal requests, high mental load, and feelings of powerlessness in the face of tensions are indirect signs of a system under pressure. They reflect less individual difficulties than the limitations of a particular way of organizing work.
Moving from intuition to structured detection
Many HR professionals intuitively sense that "something is wrong." The challenge is to transform this intuition into a structured interpretation, without medicalizing the situations.
PSR prevention measures recommend monitoring certain internal non-medical indicators: absenteeism rates, frequency of conflicts, staff turnover, calls to helplines, and repeated complaints. These factors make it possible to identify trends objectively, without entering into the realm of individual diagnosis.
The cross-referencing of HR microdata, managerial feedback, and information from listening mechanisms is crucial. It allows us to distinguish between a one-off incident and a lasting psychosocial risk.
Helplines and third-party spaces play an important role here. Although helplines are sometimes used once the problem has already arisen, some people seek help beforehand, when they are facing difficulties with workload, meaning, or management, before breaking down or quitting. Integrating them into the overall picture strengthens the ability to anticipate problems without exposing individuals.
What weak signals say about the organization's RPS maturity
Beyond individual situations, weak signals are an indicator of an organization's maturity in terms of psychosocial risks.
A primarily reactive organization intervenes when a breakdown occurs, adopting a crisis management approach. Conversely, a more preventive organization pays attention to subtle signals, accepts a degree of uncertainty, and acts before the situation crystallizes.
Ignored weak signals do not disappear. They accumulate, fueling the deterioration of the social climate and ultimately leading to an increase in absenteeism and conflicts. Reading them also means questioning governance choices and the real importance given to QWL.
How to act before stops, without overreacting
Taking early action does not mean intervening intrusively or prematurely individualizing situations.
The classic pitfalls are to psychologize organizational issues too early or to seek out individuals to blame. Conversely, low-intensity actions can have significant effects: managerial regulation, clarification of priorities, spaces for discussion, or even external support.
Above a certain threshold, a weak signal becomes a strategic signal. It then warrants more structured thinking about management methods and prevention, without waiting for the situation to turn into an open crisis.
Anticipating absences: an HR, human, and economic challenge
The challenges are human, organizational, and economic.
The total cost of absenteeism in France is estimated at over €120 billion per year, including both direct and indirect costs. Daily allowances related to sick leave exceed €10.2 billion, to which must be added more than €11.6 billion borne directly by companies.
With an average downtime of 20 to 21 days, each outage that is prevented or shortened through upstream prevention represents several weeks of disruption avoided for teams.
Each point of absenteeism therefore weighs heavily on QWL and economic balance. This is why many organizations are now structuring these issues through dedicated systems, integrating the reading of weak signals as a real HR management tool.
